Watching America's Economic Transformation

Documenting the evidence of a decade-long shift in national & economic security, AI, and the global monetary system.

In Short...

I believe the United States is entering a decade-long transition where national security, industrial policy, and AI are becoming increasingly intertwined. Meaningful social and monetary system changes are a likely consequence of these forces.

This site documents evidence that emerges to support or refute this view, along with my own observations on the implications and historical context.

I will report this story through the lens of a once upon a time 'latch key kid', a Gen-Xer, hooked on recognizing historical patterns of how societies replace one set of assumptions with another.

This website and my ‘X’ account will document events, stories, and evidence to support or refute the following views as they unfold.

I believe the United States is entering a period where many of the economic assumptions that shaped the last half century are being reconsidered. National security, industrial policy, and artificial intelligence are becoming increasingly intertwined. I'm proposing there are implications that may extend to the global monetary system and the distribution of economic opportunities.

If this framework proves broadly correct, it could reshape investment preferences, government policy, geopolitics, and the assumptions many of us have held about the American economy for decades with respect to capitalism and government's role in the economy.

The pillars below outline how I’m interpreting current events. However, the implications and the magnitude of any changes to society’s assumptions about capitalism in America are not entirely clear and certainly up for debate.

Pillars of this view:

Security: Economic security is national security.
Strategy: National resilience increasingly takes precedence over global economic integration.
Execution: The US Government and private industry become increasingly aligned around strategic national objectives.
Enabler (s): AI is a focal point to enable military and economic security.

The reflection of these pillars in an economy and society is not new, there are historical examples of a nation's national security and economic motives converge. However, they seem to be currently unfolding in a unique environment that has implications for how changes might unfold and what the final ‘picture’ might look like in the coming years.

Specifically, these difference revolve around:

Current US debt
The preceding 50 years of global economic integration
The USD role as global reserve currency

Given these differences, I'm proposing the following consequences:

A New Monetary Order: The global monetary system gradually becomes more multi-currency based, with gold playing a larger role as a neutral reserve asset.
A Bifurcation of Winners & Losers: An open question; who or what groups of the economy and society will benefit or bear the cost most?

Every generation grows up under conditions of the time and consequently holds certain assumptions about the way the world works and what ‘normal’ society looks like. Think 'Fourth Turning' changes.

History might not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.