The Liquidity Roadmap
What is The Liquidity Roadmap?
The liquidity roadmap is how I frame liquidity conditions that transmit into risk assets.
All risk assets are influenced by liquidity conditions, but Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to express these conditions with unusual clarity - making shifts in the environment easier to observe in price behavior.
Think of it like a fingerprint, but the roadmap reveals liquidity conditions that are three months ahead; price has historically responded to these condtions. Follow the liquidity roadmap in the image below (the yellow line).
Notice how well Ethereum has historically responded to the conditions represented by the roadmap; Bitcoin is similar.
Is The Liquidity Roadmap Perfect?
No, the Liquidity Roadmap does not and cannot reflect every possible outcome in the market. Markets can do anything - there are no guarantees or promises.
However - there are high probability responses to liquidity conditions.
In the Roadmap sample above, you'll see what look like deviations from the roadmap, some are shocks and others are not deviations at all - but characteristics of liquidity cycles.
There are dynamic lags and sensitivity, price displacements, and cycle resets - all something members hear me talk about as we move forward.
Interpreting The Roadmap
The Liquidity Roadmap provides a high-level view of the market environment that risk assets tend to operate within. On its own, the roadmap can appear revealing and useful, I even share it on social media.
However, it does not provide clarity around how different environments tend to unfold in real time — including nuance around the potential timing of turning points, the potential duration of conditions, or a framing of the risks that emerge from decision options.
That nuance isn’t obvious from the the liquidity roadmap line alone. It comes from experience being in the market through these conditions, combined with consistently framing decisions within this context.
This is where the Liquidity Roadmap matters most — not as a standalone reference, but as the starting point of a disciplined way of thinking about risk and exposure combined with nuance that the chart does not reveal at face value.
Membership & The Roadmap
I am in the process of developing a new paid offer. More information will be available shortly.